The Stealth Dragon

A Washington Stealth Fan Blog

This project is maintained by tfitch

Stealth vs. Chicago Shamrox Feb 9th. Preview

February 9, 2008
Author: tfitch

Saturday’s lacrosse game between the San Jose Stealth (2-3) and the visiting Chicago Shamrox (1-2) is more than a battle of two teams hoping to return to .500. The Shamrox are hoping to establish themselves in their second year with their second win over a Western Division team this season as well as their second win over the Stealth in as many years. Meanwhile the Stealth are battling to remain .500 and take ownership of the 2nd place seed in the Western playoffs. Losing to the Shamrox last season cost the Stealth the 2nd seed and they are not about to let that happen again this year.

On offense, the Shamrox are lead by two former Stealth players, Callum Crawford and Kevin Fines, as well as Sting refugee Lindsay Plunkett. Callum is averaging a very respectable 4.33/ppg in his first season in Chicago. Plunkett is the only other Shamrox player to score in double digits with 10 points in just two games. The Shamrox will need big games out of these two players to compete with a Stealth squad that has had a full week to rest up for this game.

The Stealth offense needs to maintain their recent level of effort. Look for Jeff Zywicki and Colin Doyle to lead the way, with the rest of the crew scoring when possible. The Stealth offense needs to get off the floor in a jiffy to prevent the Shamrox transition game from dominating the flow of the game.

On defense, the Shamrox really miss Cam Woods from last season, but welcome in Brock Boyle who played for the Minnesota Swarm last season. The core of the Shamrox defense is actually their transition game, they want to pick up the ball and advance it really fast. If they’re going to jump on the Stealth, this is the one aspect of the game where it’ll happen.

Correspondingly the Stealth defenders are going to rely on the Stealth offense getting off the floor in time for the defenders to do their job. Curtis Hodgson had a goal last week in transition for the Stealth and hopefully can continue his scoring ways to pad the Stealth scoring. Eric Martin is leading the team in collecting loosies again this year (albeit just one ahead of Zywicki) and I don’t expect anyone on the Shamrox squad to slow him down this week.

In goal for Chicago is former Stealth Brandon Miller. Miller was an All-Star last year for the East and has respectable stats so far this year with a 77% save percentage and 12.9 gga. I am expecting the Stealth to start Aaron Bold in goal because Anthony Cosmo is arriving in San Jose late on Friday and his only advantage to be ready for a 1pm game tomorrow is that it will feel like it’s 4pm to him. That’s not much of an advantage compared to Bold who will already be in town, rested and ready to go.

Tim Booth is all setup for another dominating face-off performance. The Shamrox have only won 28-89 of face-offs this year, which is a percentage I’ve never actually seen a team lose as a whole. With no apparent threat from the Shamrox, if Booth wins 66% of the draws it will be a combination of a good game and expected result.

The Power Play for both teams is rather even, converting 33% for the Stealth and 39% for the Shamrox. So the Shamrox have a slight edge, but the Stealth should be doing better than this and hopefully will if giving the opportunity with Shamrox penalties. The Man Down defense is the advantage for the Stealth 59% to 52% but the Stealth consistently have an advantage here of scoring short-handed goals (6 vs. 1). So if the Stealth go down a man, they’re more likely to stop the Shamrox from scoring and also more likely to score from it.

Finally, this is only the Shamrox’s 4th game compared to the 6th for the Stealth and the Shamrox might be a little rusty because they haven’t played in a couple of weeks. Combining that break in their schedule with the other aspects evaluated above, the Stealth should clearly win every aspect of this game, except the transition game. And if the Stealth really focus on getting off the floor they can make the transition game a draw, removing the only advantage the Shamrox would have.

Prediction:
Stealth 14 and Shamrox 8

Go Stealth!